National Intelligence Bulletin June 4, 1975

D84206

National Intelligence Bulletin June 4, 1975

English

United State

04 June 1975

DC-Cam, D84206 27/03/2025

Computer-Typing (tx) 18 pages

Kapitsa described the outcome in Vietnam as a great defeat for China and by implication a corresponding victory for the USSR. He was less enthusiastic about Cambodia and even wept a few crocodile tears for the people of Phnom Penh. Without giving any specifics, Kapitsa professed to see factions within the Cambodian leadership and took care to describe the pro-Chinese faction as "savages" who were responsible for the excesses. This factional formulation provides a rationale for Moscow to seek ties with Cambodia even while condemning sotto voce the Cambodian leaders. On Japan, Kapitsa asserted that should the Japanese accept the hegemony clause in a treaty with China, it would freeze Soviet Japanese relations for a long time. He also linked the hegemony issue to the question of the Northern Territories, suggesting that the Soviets might show some flexibility if Tokyo resisted Chinese pressures. He obviously hopes that such assertions will get back to the Japanese and
stiffen their resolve with China. Rogachev, has told a US diplomat that Moscow
anticipates that, in the end, Tokyo will agree to the hegemony language. The
implication is that the onus for the resulting "freeze" in relations will lie with Janan.

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